Bet #1 of 7 Essential Bets To Make In A World Where Almost Everything Is A Gamble.

It all started with a conversation I had with Burke Brown, a friend and psychologist who has an insatiable interest in the inequality that evolves in all games of chance — and how this may provide a model for the uneven distribution of wealth in the world.

His website, aakkozzll.com, is a wonderful compendium of quotations and references related to the role of chance in all human behaviour.

Then came Malcolm Gladwell’s book, Outliers: The Story of Success, which among other things pointed out the role of chance in peoples’ success. And just last week, while driving around one day on errands, I had the good fortune (pun intended) to hear a radio interview with Leonard Mludinow on the same subject.

Leonard is a fascinating man; he has a doctorate in physics and now teaches about randomness to future scientists at Caltech. He has also written episodes of MacGyver and Star Trek, The Next Generation.

Cool. I set my GPS for the most direct route to the bookstore to buy his latest book, The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives.

If you’ve heard my keynotes or if you’ve been in one of my workshops, you have probably heard me say there is no such thing as a magical ‘success’ formula or recipe.

Now I know why…

As a species, we are wired to notice patterns and draw connections between causes and events. Not only is it critical for our survival, it also helps us feel more in control of our lives. Each success and failure we experience either strengthens or weakens a connection or belief we’ve created in the past. Trial and error can be a long, arduous process, and so it’s tempting to follow someone else’s pre-packaged set of ‘golden rules’.

‘Just follow this recipe,’ I have heard the gurus say’, and you will get the same result just as easily as baking a cake with the right ingredients.’

Yes, it drives me crazy when I hear people say that!!!

The problem is that most people’s recipes for success are developed with incomplete datapoints, or they don’t take into account the impact of chance events, or they are simply based on faulty logic. Or all of the above.

Face it, you are not the same person as the one who came up with the formula. You do not have the same strengths, weaknesses, interests, desires, friends or market conditions. You are not in the same place at the same time.

Every degree of rotation our planet turns gives us an entirely new set of variables.

This does not mean we cannot learn from other people’s experience. Nor does it mean that general principles that hold true more or less some of the time don’t exist. (Confused? Remember, two negatives equals a positive.) Nor does it mean that there aren’t absolute laws of physics, nor, depending on your beliefs, the role of God.

But enough with the disclaimers.

It simply means that in addition to all those ‘golden rules’, you also have to factor in the effect of chance. And if randomness really does rule our lives to a much greater extent than we ever give it credit for, and if there really is no true recipe for success, where does that leave you in your pursuit of ‘happiness’?

Should you revert to following the advice of sorcerers and diviners? (Unfortunately, many do exactly that without realizing or admitting it.) Should you drop out of the game entirely because it may not matter what you do? Or, is there some other set of guides or maxims you can follow that — if it cannot guarantee success, at least improve your chances of achieving it?

The answer to the last question is, ‘yes’, there is.

I have created the non-definitive guide to possible success: Seven Essential Bets To Make In A World Where Almost Everything Is A Gamble.

Over the next several Essential Messages, I’ll publish each bet and the reason why it increases your odds of success. Some of the bets will be familiar to you, but probably for different reasons than what you’d expect. Other bets will give you completely new food for thought.

For now, simply ponder Essential Bet #1:

Bet on randomness and chance

Luck plays a much bigger role in your successes and failures
than you ever gave it credit for.

While it may be useful (and comforting) to draw meaning out of random events, it is also incredibly liberating to know that not everything happens for a reason. In fact, more often than not, things happen for no reason at all.

So now you can start to focus on those things that you can control…

Essentially yours,

Michel Neray
Chief Differentiation Officer
The Essential Message

P.S. If you’re wondering what this has to do with your Essential Message, here’s the answer: your Essential Message is not only one of the bets, it’s also part of the same process that helps you discover the success formula that works for you. But I’m getting ahead of myself…